ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 101737 SPC MCD 101737 NCZ000-SCZ000-101930- Mesoscale Discussion 1685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Areas affected...Southeast NC...Northeast SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101737Z - 101930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail are possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely due to the limited areal extent of the threat. DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, cumulus is increasing along a weak surface boundary across southeast NC, and also along the sea breeze from coastal portions of northeast SC into southeast NC. Temperatures rising into the low 90s F combined with rich low-level moisture are resulting in the development of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE already in the 1000-1500 J/kg range (per recent mesoanalyses) and some further increase possible this afternoon. Meanwhile, moderate mid/upper-level flow on the periphery of a deep upper trough over the Northeast is resulting in effective shear of 25-35 kt across the region. This shear will be sufficient to support some updraft organization with any deep convection that develops this afternoon. Locally damaging wind will be a threat given the potential for water-loading within a very moist environment, while any well-organized multicell or supercell structures that develop will have some hail potential, despite relatively warm temperatures aloft. The areal extent of the primary threat is expected to remain confined to near the coast, and the number of storms within the threat area remains uncertain given generally limited large-scale ascent across the region. Given these factors, watch issuance is considered unlikely, though a conditional severe threat will be present with any storms this afternoon. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 33777808 33407864 32887915 32827977 33147970 33917917 35067849 35167796 35237724 35227676 35097640 34887622 34777647 34667654 34457699 34177744 33777808 NNNN