ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100609 
SPC MCD 100609 
NEZ000-100815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019

Areas affected...Parts of south central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 100609Z - 100815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may continue to pose a risk for
severe hail and locally strong surface gusts south of Broken Bow
into the Kearney, Lexington and Holdrege areas of south central
Nebraska through 3-5 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorm development continues, mainly
focused across central Nebraska, near the Broken Bow area, where a
couple of storms may still be producing severe hail and locally
strong surface gusts.  Even this activity has exhibited recent
weakening trends, and there appears little mid/upper support. 
However, convection has been focused within stronger low-level warm
advection, aided by the nocturnal southerly low-level jet, along the
eastern periphery of a low-level moist axis which is contributing to
CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg.  In the presence of strong vertical shear,
beneath modest northwesterly mid-level flow, occasional
re-intensification of an isolated storm or two might still be
possible, with a tendency for convection to propagate southward
toward the Kearney, Holdrege, Lexington areas through 8-10Z.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41589986 41289894 41049856 40609833 40199898 40379979
            41589986 

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