ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071702 
SPC MCD 071702 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-071830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019

Areas affected...The mid-Atlantic into portions of the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 071702Z - 071830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and
evening with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A watch is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms have started to develop from the
Mid-Atlantic into portions of the Northeast in an environment with
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Effective shear around 30 knots will support multicell clusters and
lines capable of both large hail and damaging winds. Mid-level lapse
rates around 6.5 to 7 C/km will support a greater threat for large
hail in this region than farther south across Virginia and North
Carolina. The greatest threat for both large hail and damaging winds
will be from central Maryland northeast into far southeast New York
where storm coverage, instability, and shear will be maximized ahead
of an MCV currently out of far eastern West Virginia. A watch will
be issued soon.

..Bentley/Goss.. 08/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...
LWX...

LAT...LON   41417612 42407495 42957379 43037164 42517087 42137012
            41576996 41237099 41047222 40627298 39907399 39077453
            38127498 37867533 37747602 37837684 37977744 38457775
            38987784 39847771 41077665 41417612 

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