ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281919 
SPC MCD 281919 
NYZ000-PAZ000-282115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southern New York into northern
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281919Z - 282115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will continue to develop through the
afternoon, with a few damaging wind gusts possible with the more
organized storms. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Deep-layer ascent associated with an upper level trough
glancing from the north, coincident with diurnal boundary layer
heating, has contributed to the recent thunderstorm development
across southern NY into PA over the past couple of hours. The warm,
moist boundary layer in place has resulted in modest buoyancy (up to
1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Still, unidirectional tropospheric flow and
little vertical speed shear suggests that storms will be loosely
organized, with single cells and multicellular clusters being the
predominant mode of convection. Given the relatively poor shear and
mid-level lapse rates, marginally severe wind gusts appear to be the
primary threat with these storms. The damaging wind threat is also
expected to be isolated in nature, and a WW issuance is not
expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42178009 42747893 43317888 43307689 43537620 42827490
            41887447 41647475 41367567 41317748 41437868 41897993
            42178009 

NNNN