ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 281745 SPC MCD 281745 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-281945- Mesoscale Discussion 1598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Upstate New York...central and northern Vermont into New Hampshire...western into central Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281745Z - 281945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storm development is underway across portions of New England, with additional storm development likely over the next several hours. A few of the strongest storms may produce a few damaging wind gusts. The isolated nature of the damaging wind threat precludes a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...The passage of an upper-level shortwave trough, along with increased diurnal heating of the boundary layer, has resulted in the initiation of scattered storm development, from portions of Upstate New York, into northern/western New England over the past couple of hours. Continued insolation, in tandem with the passing upper-level trough, will provide enough lift to support additional storm development and gradual intensification through the afternoon hours across the region. Currently, modest buoyancy is in place, with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted by the latest Mesoanalysis, with RAP forecast soundings and Mesoanalysis depicting MLCAPE reaching up to 1500 J/kg by afternoon peak heating. The buoyancy in place is driven primarily by deep low-level moisture, as lapse rates are expected to remain somewhat poor (just below 7 C/km in the sfc-3km layer, and around 6 C/km through the rest of the troposphere). In addition, nearly unidirectional, weak flow below 300 mb suggests that speed and directional shear will also be poor throughout New England. Nonetheless, the aforementioned CAPE profiles, and some speed shear within the boundary layer, suggests that a few individual cells or multicell clusters may become organized long enough to produce a few damaging wind gusts. However, the damaging wind gust threat is expected to remain sparse in nature, and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43867616 44417581 45007488 45007151 45357064 45987017 47116956 47186892 47216811 46766789 45996836 44736963 43747074 42927216 42697433 43127572 43867616 NNNN