ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 202044 SPC MCD 202044 MIZ000-202245- Mesoscale Discussion 1548 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019 Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531... Valid 202044Z - 202245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for isolated strong/damaging wind gusts will continue in WW 531. Greatest likelihood for these gusts will be in east-central Lower Michigan. Another round of convection may move through later this evening, but a thoroughly overturned airmass ahead of it leads to uncertainty with regard to how severe the secondary line will be. DISCUSSION...An ongoing line of convection continues to move southeastward into central and southern Lower Michigan. This line has become less organized in the last few hours with velocities behind the leading convection trending downward as well as outflow moving ahead of the convection per KGRR radar imagery. Ahead of this activity, upper 70s dewpoints have advected into a narrow corridor of southwestern/south-central Michigan. Here, 2500-3500 MLCAPE may support a few isolated strong updrafts with potential for damaging wind gusts. Farther north, in east-central Michigan, the convective line has shown better intensity on radar. A small area of east-central Michigan still contains modestly buoyant air (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and slightly higher deep layer shear (25-35 kts) where isolated damaging wind gusts will remain possible. A convective line now moving east through southern Wisconsin will likely move into southern Lower Michigan later this evening. However, given the amount of convective overturning that has occurred in that region, the intensity of this line in a few hours is highly in question. Should it encounter undisturbed warm sector air, most likely along the southern Michigan border, strong/damaging wind gusts would be possible. ..Wendt.. 07/20/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42268640 42568631 42928574 43308525 43868481 44348429 44368344 44018253 43208239 42308315 41868380 41878629 41948653 42268640 NNNN