ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 151703 SPC MCD 151703 MNZ000-WIZ000-NDZ000-151830- Mesoscale Discussion 1476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Areas affected...portions of northern and central MN into northwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151703Z - 151830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase across portions of northern/central MN into northern WI this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and some hail will be possible and a watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A band of storms continues to track east across north-central MN at midday. These storms are likely still somewhat elevated per mesoanalysis and surface temperatures still a couple of degrees cooler than needed for surface based convection per 12z INL RAOB. However, several locations further south toward central MN have warmed into the 84-86 degree temperature range and the CU field across the region is beginning to develop and become bettered defined with time. With continued heating, surface-based convection is expected to develop within the next few hours across parts of northern MN and eventually into northern WI. One or more bands of storms is possible this afternoon, with TCU continuing to develop ahead of the cold front to the south-southwest of current storms. Also noted in surface analysis is an area of surface confluence and low level moist axis ahead of the frontal band across north-central MN. Convection may eventually develop here as well as upper forcing for ascent increases with the approaching of the shortwave impulse. Hi-res guidance is doing a poor job so far in handing ongoing convection, with most HRRR/WRF guidance not depicting any storms ongoing across northern MN. This does lead to some uncertainty in how things will evolve/timing of greater severe threat heading into the afternoon. Regardless, a very moist boundary layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong instability. Deep layer shear will increase some as the shortwave impulse shifts east/northeast, but in general will remain modest. Nevertheless, one or more bands of severe storms capable of damaging winds and possibly hail will spread eastward across northern MN into northern WI through the afternoon. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area in the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Dial.. 07/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 48049084 47179089 46189111 45959113 45329164 44989232 44859322 45019401 45339528 45759640 46629672 47089658 48069578 48659472 48799400 48739341 48479200 48239108 48049084 NNNN