ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 130653 
SPC MCD 130653 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...southeast LA...far southern MS...Mobile Bay

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 130653Z - 130800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A storm or two may acquire transient rotation/weak
supercell characteristics overnight.  A brief/weak tornado cannot be
ruled out.  The forecast coverage/magnitude of the tornado risk will
probably preclude a tornado watch issuance unless observational
trends change.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KLIX shows a storm with weak
supercell structure southeast of New Orleans moving north within an
outer convective band from Tropical Storm Barry.  The 06z Slidell,
LA raob depicted weak buoyancy (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE) with a very
moist profile and poor lapse rates.  However, inputting the observed
storm motion of storms near the central Gulf Coast is yielding
between 200-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH.  Given the quasi-discrete storm
mode in the aforementioned environment in the northeast quadrant of
Tropical Storm Barry, it is possible weak low-level mesocyclones
could episodically develop over the next several hours.  A
brief/weak tornado is the main threat.

..Smith/Guyer.. 07/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29298974 30579056 30988933 30508702 30028702 29868834
            28788873 29298974 

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