ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111958 
SPC MCD 111958 
NYZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Areas affected...portions of northern NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 111958Z - 112200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase late this afternoon and
evening, posing a threat for strong, locally damaging wind gusts.
Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Portions of northern NY has become moderately unstable
this afternoon beneath thinning high level cloudiness. Latest 1-min
visible satellite loop shows a large cumulus field beneath the high
level clouds. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s with
mainly low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg.
Storms have increased vigorously along the surface cold front in
eastern Ontario and are slowly shifting east. Additional convection
has tried to initiate at times along what may be a lake breeze or
confluence band just downstream from Lake Ontario in Oswego County
NY. It appears likely that one or more bands of storms will track
across parts of northern NY late this afternoon into early evening. 

Regionally, convection has struggled to maintain
organization/intensity, due in part to rather weak shear and poor
midlevel lapse rates, despite adequate instability and steep 0-3 km
lapse rates. Expect that this will be similar with storms that track
across the MCD area, with strong, locally damaging gusts being the
main threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for
possible watch issuance in the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   45197399 45187384 44827365 44507353 43927385 43327441
            43047522 42977618 43137697 43477733 44057693 44837558
            45207478 45197399 

NNNN