ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111731 
SPC MCD 111731 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-111900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Areas affected...portions of northeast KY into southern and eastern
OH and northwest PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 111731Z - 111900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms capable of strong wind
gusts will be possible across the upper Ohio Valley region this
afternoon. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of
the cold front across northeast Ohio. Cloud cover has been light
across this area which has allowed temperatures to warm mainly into
the 80s with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints across the region.
This has resulted in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and steep low level lapse
rates. Effective shear in this area is perhaps a bit stronger than
points downstream due to contributions from the front and shortwave
trough impinging on the region and enhancing midlevel flow modestly.
One or more lines and/or clusters are expected to continue
developing ahead of the front and shift eastward through the
afternoon. Strong to locally severe wind gusts will be the main
concern with these storms though some small hail is possible with
the most intense cells. However, longevity of the severe threat is
in question due to widespread cloudiness downstream across much of
western into central PA southwestward into WV. This has limited
downstream destabilization and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will
likely not allow for much in the way of airmass recovery. As such,
the severe threat may be rather limited in space and time across the
MCD area. Nevertheless, trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39088222 38428301 38108370 38128411 38358431 38728429
            39388382 40298289 41058217 42078095 42178056 42128019
            41898006 41548003 41048015 40528056 39088222 

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