ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111445 
SPC MCD 111445 
MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-111615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...northeast KY...WV...far
western MD and southwest PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111445Z - 111615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts will be possible during the late
morning and early afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were ongoing this morning along a
pre-frontal trough/confluence zone from northeast KY through
southeast OH and into western PA. This convection has slowly
increased in intensity late this morning as a very moist boundary
layer continues to destabilize and capping erodes. Latest
mesoanalysis indicates up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE across the region and
this should increase some through the afternoon. However, widespread
cloudiness will inhibit destabilization somewhat, and certainly will
limit steepening of low level lapse rates, which currently are
rather poor. Nevertheless, sporadic strong wind gusts will be
possible as convection has sufficient instability to work with in
the presence of 25-35 kt of effective shear. Additionally, PW values
greater than 1.75 inches will aid in downburst potential. Overall,
the threat over the next few hours is expected to remain limited
across the MCD area with only sporadic strong gusts possible in the
most intense cells. As such, a watch in not currently expected.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...
LMK...

LAT...LON   38507939 38198020 37878228 37778352 37928437 38208447
            38388433 39088333 39748253 40188197 40598142 41278067
            41448031 41207985 40737949 40187924 39327884 39107882
            38717907 38507939 

NNNN