ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082250 
SPC MCD 082250 
MNZ000-NDZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2019

Areas affected...Central/eastern North Dakota...portions of
northern/northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

Valid 082250Z - 090045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms capable of severe wind gusts as well as large hail
continue within WW 498. Linear storm mode will favor severe wind
gusts as the primary threat. A downstream WW or WW extensions will
likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms in WW 498 have clustered into several
linear segments. Given the extreme buoyancy out ahead of this
activity -- 3500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE -- storms will continue to
propagate eastward and pose a threat for severe wind gusts. Though
deep-layer shear is modest (around 30-35 kts) and storm mode has
become more linear, steep level lapse rates will support large hail
in the stronger cores. Stronger storms have also developed within
southern Manitoba, some of which may move into portions of northern
Minnesota. A downstream WW or WW extensions will need to be
considered within the next 1-2 hours as activity is expected to
maintain its intensity into the early evening.

..Wendt.. 07/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46820129 48389931 49039788 49059565 48469536 46789677
            46269835 46090010 46060121 46260161 46820129 

NNNN