ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070749 
SPC MCD 070749 
NEZ000-COZ000-070915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2019

Areas affected...southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496...

Valid 070749Z - 070915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues east-southeast this
morning across southwest Nebraska. Gusty outflow winds will remain
possible in the near term, but overall, the severe threat should
wane in the longer term.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing mesoscale convective system continues to
advance east-southeast this morning across southwest Nebraska. At
present, the overall environment appears to have become less
favorable for organized severe wind threat when compared to last
evening. Most-unstable CAPE has fallen to around 1000 J/kg and
deep-layer shear has remained around 25-35 knots. Surface-based
inhibition is expected to increase the rest of the night, which
should limit the potential for thunderstorms to produce organized,
widespread surface-based severe winds. However, given the presently
organized nature of the thunderstorm complex, a localized damaging
wind gust or two will remain possible for the next 1-2 hours.

Given the increasing surface inhibition, decreasing instability, and
overall decreasing intensity in radar trends, a severe thunderstorm
watch downstream of current watch #496 appears unlikely.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 07/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40990257 41970265 41990200 42110199 42100026 40720023
            40680202 40960207 40990257 

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