ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062152 
SPC MCD 062152 
MTZ000-IDZ000-062345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2019

Areas affected...much of central and western Montana...portions of
northern Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 062152Z - 062345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
the remainder of this afternoon and this evening with a risk for
large hail and damaging winds.  Coverage is expected to remain
isolated, and a watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were gradually increasing in coverage
across the higher terrain of northwest Montana in response to
diurnal heating and modest lift downstream of an upper low across
southern British Columbia.  Mid-level flow is increasing slightly
with the approach of an embedded speed max, resulting in sufficient
shear for organized storms.  Additionally, steep mid-level lapse
rates had contributed to 500 to 1000 J/kg of surface-based buoyancy.
This environment will support multicells and supercell structures
with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts through
this evening.

Coverage is expected to remain somewhat isolated, and a watch is not
currently expected.

..Bunting/Hart.. 07/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON   46121005 45461256 45411460 47951542 48861474 48951385
            48981276 48981111 48620930 47150881 46121005 

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