ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 031731 SPC MCD 031731 NCZ000-SCZ000-031930- Mesoscale Discussion 1352 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019 Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031731Z - 031930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon near a surface trough over the coastal plain and on the sea breeze front. The strongest storms will be capable of gusts 50-60mph and hail 0.50-1.50 inch in diameter. The expected coverage of the severe risk will probably preclude the need for a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon shows storm development near Cape Fear and Cape Lookout. Towering cumulus is now evident near the Grand Strand. The initial stages of a cumulus field are developing over the coastal plain of SC. Surface observations show an extremely moist airmass along the immediate coast with upper 70s to lower 80s dewpoints as temperatures warm into the lower 90s. KLTX VAD shows 10-15kt southerly low-level flow veering to west-northwesterly in the mid levels and increasing to 40kt. As a result, the wind profile over the Grand Strand and Cape Fear vicinity is slightly stronger and more supportive for organized multicells than farther north near Cape Hatteras and farther south near Charleston. Forecast soundings indicate a very unstable airmass (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) is in place despite modest 700-500mb lapse rates. With PW around 1.8-1.9 inches and steepening 0-2km lapse rates, it seems plausible several microbursts yielding 50-60mph gusts are possible. The stronger updrafts could result in localized marginally severe hail before greater convective overturning occurs by late afternoon. ..Smith/Grams.. 07/03/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 32968023 34177935 35027793 35197668 34867637 32637984 32968023 NNNN