ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302035 
SPC MCD 302035 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2019

Areas affected...Southwest South Dakota...Northeast Wyoming...and
far Northwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...

Valid 302035Z - 302200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for storm reorganization/reintensification as
storm cluster moves east across WW 467.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour shows storms
that were once isolated/severe, including reports of 1 inch hail in
Weston county, WY, have consolidated into a small sub-severe cluster
and entered the Black Hills in far western South Dakota. This
lackluster convective evolution appears to be attributable 1)
limited instability/lack of destabilization across northern parts of
the watch area, and 2) a residual low-level cloud deck straddling
the South Dakota/Nebraska border that has limited surface heating,
leading to poor low-level lapse rates, limited boundary layer
mixing, and shunting of stronger low-level southerly flow (currently
juxtaposed over west-central Nebraska).

While convective trends in the short-term remain unclear, it seems
possible that the current activity will continue moving east and
remain sub-severe initially before undergoing potential
reintensification as the storms emerge from the Black Hills region.
The thermodynamic environment farther east is more conducive to
sustain severe convection, where richer boundary-layer moisture
resides (i.e., dew point temperatures in the mid/upper 60s F
yielding MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg), and potential exists for the cluster
to align with warm/moist southerly 850 mb flow.

..Karstens.. 06/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42540487 44410488 45520128 43640127 42540487 

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