ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 241722 SPC MCD 241722 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-241915- Mesoscale Discussion 1231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Areas affected...Portions of middle/eastern TN...western NC/SC...northeastern/east-central AL...and northern/central GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241722Z - 241915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms with primarily a strong to damaging wind threat may develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms should continue to strengthen across middle into eastern TN this afternoon along a trailing boundary extending southward from a MCV in western/central KY. It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to an upper trough over the mid MD Valley and Upper Midwest may only glance this region. Even so, low-level convergence along the trailing outflow boundary should prove sufficient for additional convective development over the next couple of hours as MLCAPE increases into the 1000-2000 J/kg range downstream. An unseasonably strong belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly winds is present around 700 mb from middle/eastern TN into AL and much of GA this afternoon per VWP estimates from area radars and 17Z mesoanalysis. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer continues across this region, low-level lapse rates will steepen further. Strong to damaging winds may occur with storms as the enhanced flow present at 700 mb reaches the surface through convective downdrafts. Relatively greater storm coverage is anticipated across middle/eastern TN this afternoon in closer proximity to the upper trough, although isolated development may also occur farther south into northeastern AL and northern/central GA. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be needed this afternoon for some part of this region depending on radar trends. ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 36338571 36598508 36538369 36578189 36528105 35538142 34668207 34008268 33258364 32848452 33038560 33548669 34418655 36338571 NNNN