ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231837 
SPC MCD 231837 
OKZ000-TXZ000-232000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Areas affected...Northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 231837Z - 232000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage/intensity of storms expected this
afternoon in proximity to an outflow boundary. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado or two possible. Watch likely.

DISCUSSION...Remnant outflow from a decaying MCS this morning is
beginning to stall over southern Oklahoma as strong insolation has
led to rapid modification and destabilization of the airmass.
Temperatures near and south of the outflow boundary are in the upper
80s and lower 90s F and dew point temperatures remain quite high, in
the 70sF. This has yielded MLCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg. Visible
satellite shows developing cumulus that is at or nearing convective
initiation, with one severe storm in Grady and McClain counties in
Oklahoma. 

Given these convective trends, widespread convective development is
anticipated in the next few hours. Storms that develop should
organize into multicellular and supercellular structures initially,
given effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt over the region (lessening
with southern extent). As such, large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats, although a tornado or two could occur,
particular for any storm that develops/crosses along the western
portion of outflow boundary within the more favorably sheared
environment. With time, storms should consolidate into a
forward-propagating MCS and transition to primarily a damaging wind
threat this evening.

..Karstens/Hart.. 06/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33070032 34269981 35139833 35349657 34829541 33669545
            33179600 32829742 32529825 32319959 33070032 

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