ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230914 
SPC MCD 230914 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-231045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Areas affected...Western/Central/Northern
OK...South-Central/Southeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431...

Valid 230914Z - 231045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431.

DISCUSSION...Several bowing line segments are currently moving
through Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431. The northernmost bowing
segment is currently moving eastward through south-central KS at
around 40 kt, although some discrete propagation may have occurred
recently as the line intersected preceding storms. Primary threat
with this bowing segment is damaging wind gusts, although the recent
merger with preceding storms has acting to increase updraft strength
with a resulting increase in threat for large hail. Subsequent storm
mergers farther east will likely have the same effect.

A second bowing line segment is moving east-northeastward into
northwest OK at 45 kt. Orthogonal orientation of the storm motion to
the shear vector and favorable location within the instability
gradient suggests the environment supports storm persistence. That
being said, the northern portion of this line has recently surged
forward, suggesting the updraft may have collapsed. Decreasing echo
tops add merit to this scenario.

..Mosier.. 06/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37569968 38359798 38349512 35879532 34969990 36700023
            37569968 

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