ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 211550 
SPC MCD 211550 
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-211715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Areas affected...southwest Illinois through south central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

Valid 211550Z - 211715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to damaging wind gusts remain likely across the
remainder of WW 415 during the next couple hours with greatest
threat from east and southeast MO including the city of St Louis
through southwest IL. At its current speed, the MCS will likely exit
the southeastern bound of WW 415 by 19Z. The MCS is expected to
remain organized into the afternoon, and plans are to extend the
enhanced risk farther southeast through western and central KY and
middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Organized MCS with bowing segment from western IL into
central MO north and west of St. Louis continues east southeast at
35-40 kt. The associated expansive cirrus shield is slowing boundary
layer warming downstream. Nevertheless, latest objective analysis
shows a reservoir of strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) in
the warm sector from southeast KS through southern MO. Most likely
scenario is for storms to continue southeast along instability
gradient in vicinity of a warm front currently extending from near
St. Louis southeastward through middle TN. As the surface layer
continues to destabilize, some increase in intensity may occur this
afternoon. Damaging wind is expected to remain the primary threat.

..Dial.. 06/21/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   40049044 39688927 38458894 37688962 37399109 37579313
            37809474 38359454 38369228 39259093 40049044 

NNNN