ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 201602 
SPC MCD 201602 
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-201800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Areas affected...southeast Alabama...central and southern Georgia
and South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 201602Z - 201800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 17-18Z over a
large part of the Southeast U.S. and increase in coverage and
intensity during the afternoon, posing a risk for damaging wind and
hail. A WW will probably be needed for a portion of this region by
17Z.

DISCUSSION...A moist warm sector resides over a large part of the
southeast U.S.  with dewpoints around 70F and temperatures climbing
through the mid 80s F as of 16Z. Latest objective analysis indicate
MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and further destabilization will occur
as the surface layer continues to warm. Water vapor imagery shows a
progressive shortwave trough moving through the TN Valley, with an
MCV also indicated over southeast TN/northern GA. A low-level
confluence zone is forecast to evolve well inland from the coast
from southern AL through southern GA. The combination of forcing for
ascent associated with the MCV and progressive shortwave trough,
surface layer destabilization and subtle boundaries, should promote
warm sector initiation by early afternoon. While deep-layer wind
profiles are unidirectional west southwesterly with small 0-1 km
hodographs, a belt of 50 kt mid-level winds within the base of the
trough is resulting in 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This
environment should support both multicell and some supercell
structures with discrete modes eventually evolving into lines and
clusters capable of damaging wind and hail.

..Dial/Hart.. 06/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
MOB...

LAT...LON   32278701 33188567 34038417 35288237 34307917 32918008
            31618232 31098476 30918666 32278701 

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