ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 190108 
SPC MCD 190108 
OKZ000-TXZ000-190315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Areas affected...much of central and western OK...part of northwest
TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 190108Z - 190315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely move into western OK and parts
of northwest TX later this evening with an accompanying severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a multitude of severe thunderstorm
clusters over western and northwestern TX into the TX Panhandle.  A
line segment over extreme southeast CO will likely move across the
OK Panhandle and southwest KS during the next few hours.  Surface
analysis shows temperatures in the 80s degrees F with surface
dewpoints in the middle-upper 60s.  A steep 700-500mb lapse rate
(7.8 degrees C/km) and 85kt westerly flow was sampled by the
Amarillo raob.  Models show a tendency for upscale growth with the
ongoing thunderstorm activity over the TX-OK Panhandles and extreme
southeast CO as 850mb flow slowly strengthens this evening and veers
late tonight.  

Large hail and severe gusts are possible with any cellular activity
through the late evening in parts of western OK and western
north-central TX.  The severe risk will transition to 60+ mph gusts
capable of wind damage coincident with the expected evolution of a
band of storms moving into northwest and into central OK later
tonight.  

Farther southwest into southwest OK and adjacent parts of TX, it is
unclear whether a severe risk will persist beyond the mid-late
evening with the ongoing activity as convective inhibition increases
with the loss of heating.

..Smith/Edwards.. 06/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36509990 36989903 36999743 36639681 35499659 35039713
            33939842 32989951 33160010 36509990 

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