ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 160614 SPC MCD 160614 INZ000-ILZ000-160715- Mesoscale Discussion 1087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 Areas affected...southern Illinois through central and northern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160614Z - 160715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Localized strong to damaging wind threat may persist across southern Illinois and central through northern Indiana through about 08Z. The temporal and areal extent of the threat is not expected to be sufficient for a WW, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Central through northern IN - Bowing line segment continues east through extreme northeast IL and northwest IN at 45 kt. Activity is strongly forced in association with an MCV. The outflow boundary is in the process of merging with an east-west quasi-stationary front and the apex of the bow will likely move into a more stable surface layer where temperatures are in the low to mid 60s F north of the front. Though a short-term (1-2 hour) window will exist for a threat of mainly damaging wind gusts, activity should begin to weaken by 08Z. Southern IL - Storms are consolidating along the southern end of a southeast-advancing outflow boundary and have become slightly better organized within the last 30 min. The downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable and a 40-50 kt southwesterly migratory low-level jet will maintain moist inflow and maximize convergence next couple hours. These storms will likely continue southeast along the instability gradient next hour and pose a localized strong to damaging wind threat. There storms are further removed from the forcing associated with the MCV, so confidence is not particularly high for a longer duration severe threat. ..Dial/Grams.. 06/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38988970 39518857 40178748 41218685 41198595 40588539 39378626 38608829 38618973 38988970 NNNN