ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 152141 
SPC MCD 152141 
INZ000-ILZ000-152315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Areas affected...south-central IN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 360...

Valid 152141Z - 152315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 360 continues.

SUMMARY...If a supercell or two can develop near the Wabash Valley
during the next 1-2 hours, the tornado risk would increase and
seemingly maximize along a differential heating zone oriented
west-east across south-central IN.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates filtered
sunshine/heating is occurring over southern IN to the south of thick
mid-level cloud cover located from near Sullivan, IN east through
the Bloomington/Brownstown vicinity.  Surface temperatures south of
the boundary are in the upper 70s to lower 80s degrees F with
dewpoints near 70.  Given the poor mid-level lapse rates depicted on
the 18z Lincoln, IL raob and forecast soundings over south-central
IN, buoyancy is weak in absence of boundary layer heating and its
effects on greater destabilization.  KVWX VAD data show 50kt around
700mb with clockwise curvature with the hodograph.  Compared to KIND
and KLVX, KVWX displays a larger hodograph.  

Current thinking is the best corridor for tornado potential will
focus along the differential heating boundary over south-central IN
where the combination of stronger low-level shear and greater
buoyancy may be favorable for a tornado or two during the next few
hours if a supercell can develop/become sustained.

..Smith.. 06/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   39148772 38948765 38868680 38948618 39208625 39148772 

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