ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041947 
SPC MCD 041947 
MNZ000-WIZ000-042145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019

Areas affected...Portions eastern/central Minnesota...Minnesota
Arrowhead...northwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325...

Valid 041947Z - 042145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325
continues.

SUMMARY...Two thunderstorm complexes are ongoing in WW 325. Much of
the WW area has suffered from remaining MLCIN with the exception of
a few areas where greater heating has occurred. Lack of low-level
momentum/shear will likely mean outflow moves ahead of the
convection in many areas. A threat for damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail will continue where moderate buoyancy exists.

DISCUSSION...Two thunderstorm complexes are ongoing in WW 325. A
well-developed bowing segment in central Minnesota is moving
southeast and is expected to impact the Twin Cities metro between
3-4 PM CDT. The 18Z MPX sounding showed significant MLCIN of around
200 J/kg and a general lack of low-level momentum. Recent KMPX radar
imagery has also shown outflow beginning to race ahead of the bowing
segment. These observational trends would suggest that the potential
for damaging wind gusts have decreased to a degree in east-central
Minnesota. Temperatures in south-central Minnesota have warmed to
near 90 F with upper 60s dewpoints. A relatively higher threat for
damaging wind gusts will exist ahead of this activity given the
steep low-level lapse rates. Farther north in the Minnesota
Arrowhead, another complex of thunderstorms is beginning to push
south-southeastward along the buoyancy gradient. While the 18Z INL
sounding showed less capping relative to farther south, the same
lack of low-level shear exists.

The overall evolution of these complexes is unclear given the so-far
limited buoyancy downstream in Wisconsin and the stabilization that
will occur behind the complex in central Minnesota. Pockets of
heating, particularly in southern Minnesota, will still support
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE with an attendant threat for damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Wendt.. 06/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...

LAT...LON   44939578 46039481 47779396 48509340 48399092 47849079
            44669272 44009396 43939534 44359600 44679599 44939578 

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