ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 041815 SPC MCD 041815 MOZ000-042015- Mesoscale Discussion 0973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019 Areas affected...Portions of eastern/central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041815Z - 042015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Visible satellite imagery depicts increasing cumulus activity in far western Missouri. The boundary layer is becoming increasing destabilized in central/eastern Missouri. Though timing of storm initiation is still uncertain, moderate buoyancy will support a damaging wind gust threat as well as marginally severe hail with any storms this afternoon. A WW is possible as timing becomes more clear. DISCUSSION...As a weak MCV/upstream shortwave trough approaches from the southwest, elevated cumulus have developed in far east-central Kansas/far western Missouri. Ahead of the MCV, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F have moved into much of central and eastern Missouri supporting a modestly buoyant airmass with 1000 to near 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. With continued heating/moistening, MLCAPE is forecast to rise to around 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. HREF guidance is insistent that a cluster of storms will develop in the central Missouri vicinity by 3-4 PM CDT. Observational trends would certainly support the agitated cumulus moving into central Missouri, deepening, and becoming more intense. The main uncertainty is the exact timing of when this development will occur, though recent objective mesoanalysis suggests MLCIN is near or very near being removed. Weak deep-layer shear will keep storms relatively disorganized, but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is possible in the next few hours once observational trends on storm initiation become more clear. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/04/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37139407 37899441 39349450 40349353 40389303 39499183 38239166 37179178 36779227 36709305 36679373 37139407 NNNN