ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 031931 
SPC MCD 031931 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-032130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...far western Kansas...far
southeast Wyoming...portions of Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 031931Z - 032130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing in response to a weak shortwave
across the central Rockies/Raton Mesa. Very well-mixed boundary
layer conditions will promote strong/severe wind gusts with this
activity as it moves east. A few larger hail stones are possible,
but weak deep-layer shear and modest buoyancy will limit this
threat. Some upscale growth is expected; however, uncertainty
remains on how organized the cold-pool driven threat will be.

DISCUSSION...Modest increase in storm coverage and intensity is
expected this afternoon as weak ascent (on water vapor imagery)
approaches from the Four Corners. Storms that have initiated along
the central Rockies and the Raton Mesa will continue to slowly move
east/northeastward into a modestly unstable environment.  Dewpoints
remain mostly in the low to mid 50s F in within the discussion area,
though low 60s F exist farther to the east. Given the well-mixed
boundary layer ahead of the activity -- with DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
-- storms are expected primarily pose a threat for severe wind
gusts. A few large hail stones will also be possible, particularly
with any discrete storms, with mid-level lapse rates of around 8-8.5
C/km. Storms will likely struggle to organize with regional VAD
profiles showing around 25 kts of 0-6 km shear.

Given the favorable environment for outflow production, a cluster or
two of storms may develop and move into western Kansas/Nebraska.
Should storms make it far enough east, their intensity may spike as
they encounter slightly greater low-level moisture. The need for a
WW is unclear at this time as there is uncertainty with regard to
where the greatest cold pool organization will occur.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   37160345 37420423 39900444 41400451 42260370 42300252
            41790191 39090136 37930150 37190151 37090173 37070279
            37160345 

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