ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 031720 
SPC MCD 031720 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma...southwest Arkansas...northeast
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031720Z - 031945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should persist and increase in coverage through the
afternoon, with locally severe hail or wind possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed over southeast OK in an area of
weak 850 warm air advection and near the low-level theta-e axis
where heating persists. Shear profiles are weak especially in the
lower levels with a gradual increase to modest westerly speeds
aloft. 

Given continued heating and MLCAPE increasing to 2500 J/kg, an
increase in storm intensity is expected, with isolated severe
storms. Storms will be slow-moving, mainly in a southeastward
direction, producing sporadic hail and perhaps localized damaging
wind gusts.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33029519 33199559 33459590 33749607 34199608 34789591
            35339543 35389481 35219419 34969374 34509325 34079305
            33639307 33319315 33069336 32959374 32879437 33029519 

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