ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022050 
SPC MCD 022050 
NMZ000-022245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2019

Areas affected...Northeast/east-central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317...

Valid 022050Z - 022245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317
continues.

SUMMARY...A few supercells have been ongoing within WW 317. Large to
very large hail will remain possible with discrete storms. Damaging
wind gusts will also be possible. There is uncertainty with regard
to the evolution of this activity given the rising mid-level
heights.

DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have been ongoing for the last
hour two in WW 317. The most intense of these cells is located
within Torrance County as has exhibited strong mid-level rotation.
Surface observations show that low-level moisture ahead of this
activity has been increasing with MLCAPE rising to 1500-2000 J/kg.
Some CAMs guidance has suggested that upscale growth may occur later
this evening, though mid-level height rises make an increase in
storm coverage less likely. Deep-layer shear profiles will continue
to favor discrete storms capable of large to very large hail as well
as damaging wind gusts. Low-level winds in eastern New Mexico remain
backed, but are weak. The tornado threat is expected to remain low
this evening.

..Wendt.. 06/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   36920513 36910335 33160428 33150602 36920513 

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