ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021935 
SPC MCD 021935 
TXZ000-NMZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2019

Areas affected...Trans-Pecos...southeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 021935Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are expected to develop later this
afternoon. Deep-layer wind profiles and ample low-level moisture
will favor large to very large hail in discrete storms. Damaging
wind gusts will also be possible. A WW will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Rich low-level moisture remains entrenched across the
Trans-Pecos region as surface southeasterly winds have continued
throughout the day. Storm development appears most likely to occur
across the Davis Mountains vicinity given the recent trends in
visible satellite. An outflow boundary from early-day convection
also sits from near Carlsbad, NM to roughly Sonora, TX. Storm
development along this boundary is possible, but weak
convergence/lack of cumulus development has cast doubt on that
scenario. Long hodographs with 45-60 kts of effective shear
coincident with near 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates shear will favor
large to very large hail with discrete supercells. Damaging wind
gusts will also be possible. Low-level hodographs are small and not
expected to appreciably improve with time. While the tornado threat
will be low, some potential exists near the outflow boundary with
the low to mid 60s F dewpoints and backed surface flow. A WW will
likely be needed soon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   30640233 30070255 29690293 29540329 29550361 29650378
            30260435 31890479 32850448 32920394 32820351 32550272
            32080250 31260243 30640233 

NNNN