ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021715 
SPC MCD 021715 
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-021915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2019

Areas affected...Eastern NY...Hudson Valley...Southern VT...Western
MA...Western/Central CT...Southeast NH...Eastern PA...Most of NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021715Z - 021915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon. A few storms may be capable of hail and/or damaging wind
gusts and trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal trough recently analyzed from just west of
BTV southwestward through central PA will continue gradually moving
eastward. This trough will provide the forcing for ascent across
southern VT/NH southward through eastern PA/NJ, where visible
satellite imagery shows clearing skies and surface temperatures are
in the mid to upper 70s. Convective inhibition resulting from warm
low-levels (sampled well by the 12Z OKX sounding) is expected to
gradually erode amidst continued daytime heating and lift along the
surface trough. Initiation of deeper convection along the trough is
eventually expected. Shear is modest and MLCAPE will likely remain
below 1000 J/kg, except for portions of eastern PA and NJ where
slightly better dewpoints will exist. A few storms capable of
damaging wind gusts and hail may occur but overall coverage is
uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   43277181 43137321 41537507 39947655 39727450 40907357
            42487145 43277181 

NNNN