ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012307 
SPC MCD 012307 
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2019

Areas affected...Far eastern Kansas...Central Missouri...and western
Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...

Valid 012307Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across severe
thunderstorm watch 307 with a primary threat of large hail and
damaging winds. The greatest severe weather coverage is expected in
far eastern Missouri and far western Illinois and along the
Kansas/Missouri border.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed in northwest flow
across portions of the Missouri Valley. Up to this point, storms
have been confined to the greater instability (KS/MO border), and
closer to the mid-level shortwave (NE MO and western IL). Storms
have tried to form along the cold front between these two clusters
but have struggled up to this point. Given we are past daytime
heating and the strongest forcing is moving away from this area,
storm coverage may remain quite sparse (as supported by the 21Z
HRRR). Where strong updrafts have developed, storms have quickly
taken on supercell structures, which is not surprising given around
70 knots of flow around 8km that is being sampled from the LSX and
EAX VWP. Expect these supercells to continue through the evening
with primarily a large hail threat, and eventual growth upscale and
increasing damaging wind threat (including the St. Louis metro
area).

..Bentley.. 06/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38369486 38969483 39849229 40329104 40308976 39968919
            39198919 38668944 38179046 37929126 37919227 37849329
            37799481 38369486 

NNNN