ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 262227 
SPC MCD 262227 
KSZ000-NEZ000-262330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Areas affected...central and north-central KS...south-central and
central NE

Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

Valid 262227Z - 262330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move into
central portions of NE and KS during the evening.  Severe gusts
capable of wind damage and large hail are the primary risks, but a
weak tornado is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms over northwest KS moving into southwest NE near
McCook.  Surface analysis indicates heating has been subdued due in
part to cloud cover today with temperatures as of 22z generally in
the lower to middle 70s with low-middle 60s dewpoints. 

A potent mid-level shortwave trough located over western NM this
afternoon is forecast to move into western KS by midnight. 
Strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent associated with the
disturbance coupled with a southerly LLJ over the central Great
Plains will likely aid in storm development this evening to the east
and northeast of tornado watch 253.  Strengthening deep-layer shear
profiles and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will support some of the stronger
updrafts to be capable of large hail.  Severe gusts are possible
with the stronger downdrafts and this threat will probably increase
this evening.  A threat for a weak tornado may focus during the
evening hours before messy convective structures become more
prevalent.

..Smith/Grams.. 05/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40910038 41650010 41749838 41259733 39019739 37879850
            37700025 38110015 40910038 

NNNN