ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 261830 SPC MCD 261830 TXZ000-NMZ000-262030- Mesoscale Discussion 0812 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 Areas affected...southeast NM into portions of western TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261830Z - 262030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue to increase through the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a couple of tornadoes possible. A watch will likely be need in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Convection has been increasing ahead of the dryline near the TX/NM border over the last hour. These storms are likely elevated as mesoanalysis and forecast RAP soundings suggest weak to moderate MLCIN is still in place, with capping a bit slower to erode due to high and midlevel cloudiness. Hi-res CAMs and various model forecast soundings suggest capping should erode by around 20-21z as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the southwestern U.S. shortwave trough. Initial thunderstorm activity could pose a severe hail threat given favorable deep layer shear and steep midlevel lapse rates/elevated instability. However, surface based convection should be the main concern by mid to late afternoon. While the airmass ahead of the dryline is very moist with mid 60s to near 70 F dewpoints, forecast soundings show rather deep boundary layer mixing, which should result in higher-based convection and may limit tornado potential compared to areas further north. Furthermore, without a stronger surface cyclone, low level directional shear will be modest. Nevertheless, a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Overall, forecast hodographs remain long/straight, favoring supercells capable of very large hail in a moderately unstable airmass with steep midlevel lapse rates. In addition to very large hail and an isolated tornado, damaging winds also will be possible. A watch will likely be needed in the next few hours. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 29740240 29030313 29260407 30410422 33130452 33460430 33690390 33650289 33450209 33030165 32620150 32010160 30430212 29740240 NNNN