ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 261514 
SPC MCD 261514 
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-261745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261514Z - 261745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop and move east across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic over the next few hours. Severe storm
coverage is uncertain, but a few storms could become capable of
severe wind/hail. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Multi-cellular convection is currently moving eastward
and developing across western PA and eastern WV/western MD. Per
water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis a vorticity max is associated
with this convection and remnant MCV may embedded within the western
PA convection. For now, these storms appear to be elevated, but as
insolation continues storms are likely to become surface-based.
Ahead of these storms, a warm, moist airmass is in place with
temperatures increasing into the 80s, especially across Del-Mar-VA,
and dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s. Per mesoanalysis and
forecast soundings, MLCAPE is currently 500-1000 J/kg and likely to
increase to 1000-1500 J/kg in the next couple of hours as surface
heating continues. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots with mostly
unidirectional/speed shear will be sufficient for isolated
supercellular storms. Additionally, as the boundary layer warms,
low-level lapse rates will steepen, increasing chances for damaging
wind gusts.

Severe storm coverage still remains uncertain. While a few severe
storms are likely to develop, coverage may not meet watch criteria,
and poor mid-level lapse rates may inhibit severe hail production.
However, convective trends will be monitored for a possible watch
issuance with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40407481 39837483 38707518 38027555 37467620 37457633
            37557714 37677812 37917854 38257850 38787848 39357831
            40387839 40937825 41217772 41207688 41007584 40867514
            40637488 40407481 

NNNN