ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 251838 
SPC MCD 251838 
TXZ000-NMZ000-252045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southwest Texas from the Permian Basin
to the Rio Grande

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 251838Z - 252045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing along the dryline in southwest Texas
west/northwest of Fort Stockton. Large hail and damaging winds are
the main threats with any storm that develops and a watch issuance
is likely.

DISCUSSION...A couple of storms have begun to develop in southwest
Texas west/northwest of Fort Stockton and coverage is likely to
increase during the afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave
trough likely helping to provide forcing for ascent and Pacific
moisture along the southern periphery of the longwave trough over
the western CONUS streaming into the region. Surface dewpoints are
mostly 60-70 F and temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s
helping to increase MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg per mesoanalysis. Deep
layer shear is present with effective bulk shear values of 40-50
knots indicating the potential for supercellular development with
discrete cells likely at least initially. Given the CAPE/shear,
large hail is likely and steepening low-level lapse rates with
increasing DCAPE indicates the potential for damaging wind gusts as
well. A tornado or two is possible, especially later this
afternoon/evening as the LLJ increases and low-level veering
increases.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 05/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29080279 29000304 29860333 30910371 31920377 32050347
            32130279 32110216 31790190 31330172 30860165 30430160
            30190159 29910162 29680163 29680175 29680203 29660234
            29560254 29300271 29080279 

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