ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 251712 
SPC MCD 251712 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-251915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251712Z - 251915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing along the dryline in eastern NM/west
TX with storm coverage increasing throughout the afternoon. Severe
hail/wind are the main threats.

DISCUSSION...Storms will continue to initiate along the dryline this
afternoon with a moist airmass in place (60-70 F surface dewpoints)
and strong insolation. Per water vapor imagery, a mid-level
shortwave trough is also likely contributing to storm initiation
along the dryline. Storms will be developing in a conducive severe
environment characterized by 2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-45
knots of effective bulk shear. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the primary threats given the high/strong CAPE/shear, although the
tornado risk will increase this afternoon/evening as the LLJ
strengthens and storms move into an environment with better
low-level veering wind profiles.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 05/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32020288 32660227 33320195 34210193 35260197 36140210
            36470227 36570255 36150329 35160385 34020414 32860408
            32120381 32060358 32020288 

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