ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180447 
SPC MCD 180447 
TXZ000-180715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Areas affected...parts of western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 180447Z - 180715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm development/coverage over the next
few hours is possible over portions of western Texas.  This could
require new WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a developing supercell storm
over Crockett County Texas, along with hints of ascent/mid-level
convective development over far West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
 This is occurring ahead of a disturbance aloft evident in WV loop
crossing the New Mexico vicinity at this time.  Low-level southeast
winds have increased this evening, and as the upper short-wave
trough approaches, a fairly pronounced increase in QG ascent is
expected, spreading across western Texas toward southwestern
Oklahoma overnight.  

With steep lapse rates aloft contributing to substantial CAPE --
albeit largely elevated above a slightly stable/capped boundary
layer, expect convection to increase rather rapidly overnight,
eventually growing upscale linearly -- as supported by the
preponderance of CAM output.  While damaging wind risk should be
confined to locally more intense storms given the slightly stable
boundary layer, large hail risk may be sufficient to warrant
eventual WW issuance.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   29500219 30180297 31300279 32100236 33100132 33449991
            33169811 31229894 30030040 29500219 

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