ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 170412 
SPC MCD 170412 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-170615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

Areas affected...South-central Iowa...Northern Illinois...Far
Eastern Nebraska...Far Northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

Valid 170412Z - 170615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and isolated large hail will
continue across WW 170 for a few more hours. A southward extension
may become necessary as cells move toward the southern edge of WW
170.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows numerous thunderstorms
ongoing south of a front from near the vicinity of Omaha eastward to
just south of Chicago. This activity is located along the northern
edge of moderate instability where surface dewpoints are in the
lower 60s F and MLCAPE values are estimated to be in the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move slowly southeastward
into the stronger instability at the south end of the watch. The
instability combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will be
favorable for an isolated severe threat. Wind damage and hail will
be possible with the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41139112 41189592 41379590 41399688 41759689 41759706
            42039705 42019629 42239640 42189397 42559395 42529254
            42639254 42609199 42289204 42279067 42429064 42379050
            42209037 42158860 41748860 41748804 41628800 41618787
            41558792 41528774 41448776 41428751 40738752 40728711
            40488710 40508793 40358794 40398843 40618845 40648853
            40778861 40788889 40908891 40998997 41148995 41179043
            41049039 41039113 41139112 

NNNN