ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 152308 SPC MCD 152308 NDZ000-SDZ000-160115- Mesoscale Discussion 0636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Wed May 15 2019 Areas affected...Central and Eastern North Dakota...Northern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167... Valid 152308Z - 160115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of central North Dakota over the next couple of hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage should be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis has a 1001 mb low over central North Dakota with a cold front extending south-southwestward into western South Dakota. A narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is present ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in south south-central North Dakota in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. In response, a pocket of moderate instability is present with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the surface low on the northern edge of the stronger instability. In addition to moderate instability, the WSR-88D VWP at Bismark has 0-6 km shear near 50 kt suggesting the wind shear environment will support severe thunderstorm development. Shear will increase some over the next few hours as the low-level jet strengthens. This will help increase the severe threat as cells become more mature along the moist axis. Supercells with isolated large hail will be possible. Wind damage may also occur as well. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45249795 45260035 45460028 45460197 46980209 46990174 47240170 47220136 47550136 47490185 47600225 47730224 47780238 47870239 47910102 48600106 48610038 48530037 48529951 48399949 48389893 48559899 48539833 48259829 48219839 48079839 48029853 47579850 47179846 46649846 46639805 45249795 NNNN