ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122046 
SPC MCD 122046 
TXZ000-122245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0623
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun May 12 2019

Areas affected...Trans-Pecos Vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165...

Valid 122046Z - 122245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity over the Davis Mountains may
intensify as it encounters slightly richer boundary layer moisture.
A few instances of severe hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible. Activity should decrease by 02Z.

DISCUSSION...Over the past two hours, storms have slowly moved to
the northeast, with the strongest activity now over the Davis
Mountains. This cluster of storms has shown some signs of
intensification with 50 dBZ cores observed on the 5 km CAPPI. Latest
surface observations, including from the West Texas Mesonet,
indicate that these storms will eventually encounter low 50s
dewpoints as they progress north and east. As this occurs, a cell or
two may intensify enough to produce severe hail and perhaps a strong
wind gust. Given the relatively weak upper-level support, this
activity is expected to wane by 02Z as boundary layer stabilization
occurs.

..Wendt.. 05/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30650494 31100412 31990402 31640354 31420350 31280257
            30630162 29760169 29880230 29690273 29220292 28950318
            29220377 29450425 29720458 30650494 

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