ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121339 
SPC MCD 121339 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-121545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019

Areas affected...southern Alabama...the Florida Panhandle...and
southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 121339Z - 121545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms moving across the Gulf coastal regions
of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle at this time will
continue to pose risk for locally damaging winds.  A new WW may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a pre-frontal cluster of storms
over southern Alabama and western portions of the Florida Panhandle
at this time, in conjunction with a fairly well-defined upper
short-wave trough crossing the lower Mississippi Valley region. 
While the more unstable airmass exists just offshore, 1000 to 1500
J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is available along the Gulf Coast, fueling the
ongoing convection.   

This cluster of storms is moving eastward at 50 kt, and with 50 kt
westerlies indicated by the latest MOB WSR-88D VWP in the 2km to 5km
AGL layer, continued fast forward motion -- and attendant risk for
locally damaging winds -- will continue.  Several recent
observations indicate surface gusts in excess of 50 mph, and with
this storm cluster likely to persist, a small severe thunderstorm
watch is being considered.

..Goss/Grams.. 05/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   29678796 30248786 30668738 31058693 31778429 31588384
            30908380 29938413 29558502 29598535 29888557 29678796 

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