ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110259 
SPC MCD 110259 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-110500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019

Areas affected...Far southeast Louisiana/southeast
Mississippi/southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 110259Z - 110500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells will likely persist across far southeast
Louisiana and southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama late this
evening. A locally severe storm including a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently increased in
coverage/intensity across far southeast Louisiana and southeast
Mississippi into southwest Alabama, with the storms exhibiting
supercell character and at least weak/transient rotation. This is
occurring ahead of an apparent MCV which is moving northeastward
across southeast Louisiana. This MCV is enhancing the low/mid-level
wind field, with the Mobile AL WSR-88D now featuring around 200
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, although deep-layer shear remains only modestly
strong (around 30 kt effective). Coincident with a moist environment
(low 70s F surface dewpoints) and corridor of moderate
instability/weak inhibition, at least weak supercells will likely
persist/redevelop over the next few hours. Any severe risk should
remain highly localized, but a brief severe storm/tornado could
occur.

..Guyer/Hart.. 05/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30179012 30849007 31888863 31828712 30548762 29778925
            30179012 

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