ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100249 
SPC MCD 100249 
LAZ000-TXZ000-100415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Texas Coast into southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 100249Z - 100415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop eastward into
parts of of far southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. Trends
will be monitored for possible watch issuance, with the main concern
overnight being damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Intense convection continues to evolve across portions
of the Middle and Upper Texas Coast this evening. This convection
has remained in clusters and semi-discrete cells for much of the
last several hours. Latest trends suggest that upscale growth may be
underway via cell mergers and outflow interactions. Hi-res guidance
has been consistent in developing one or more bowing segments out of
this convection with some moving eastward off the TX coast while
another portions surges eastward across southeast TX into southwest
LA through early morning. While portions of LA have been impacted by
earlier convection and outflow surging soutwhard into the northern
Gulf of Mexico, the airmass across southwest LA remains fairly
intact and southeasterly flow through the lowest 1 km has even
resulted in some recovery as dewpoints have actually increased by
1-2 degrees over the last hour or two. This suggests that some
severe threat may develop from the Upper Texas Coast into southwest
LA over the next few hours.  Convective trends will be monitored and
a new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next couple of
hours.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   30469450 30899442 31049409 31149320 30869222 30229159
            29469169 29329233 29199383 29259428 30049444 30469450 

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