ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070450 
SPC MCD 070450 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-070545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019

Areas affected...Southwest MO...Far northwest AR/northeast OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 142...

Valid 070450Z - 070545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 142
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gust/marginally severe hail threats
may extend somewhat farther south/east of WW 142. Overall risks may
remain too marginal to warrant an additional severe thunderstorm
watch.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived arcing MCS had produced a 45 kt measured
gust in Joplin at 0354Z. The best cold pool surge continues at the
apex of the arc and this may spread across the rest of southwest MO
and eventually into northwest AR as it propagates along the
persistent MLCAPE gradient. Increasing MLCIN along with weakening of
warm advection pre-dawn do suggest that the severe threat will
generally wane with time. 9 km reflectively trends suggest the MCS
has begun its waning stage, especially with northeast extent where
instability is weak. Nevertheless, given the semi-organized nature
of the MCS, at least an isolated strong wind gust/marginal severe
hail threat may persist for a few more hours before the MCS decays
further.

..Grams.. 05/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37959308 37919272 37499249 36579257 36159310 35949393
            36009492 36429563 36859554 36759492 36859415 37959308 

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