ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061816 
SPC MCD 061816 
KSZ000-NEZ000-062015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061816Z - 062015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least some increase in severe hail potential appears
possible through 3-4 PM CDT.  It remains unclear whether this will
require a severe weather watch, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection has been supporting scattered
thunderstorm development the past few hours.  This has been
generally focused on the northeastern periphery of a plume of warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which may only continue to
slowly shift eastward toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley
through this evening.

Stronger convection should remain rooted (around 700 mb) above a
substantive near surface stable layer, to the cool side of the
surface frontal zone.  However, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests
that an influx increasingly moist air aloft, emanating from the warm
sector, coupled with strengthening mid-level lift, may contribute to
further destabilization and intensifying storm development through
20-21Z.  It appears that vertical shear within the convective layer
may become sufficient for a couple of supercells, perhaps leading to
at least some increase in severe hail potential.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41229965 41059817 40439654 39749658 39569674 39139806
            39649972 40530034 41229965 

NNNN