ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 280042 
SPC MCD 280042 
TXZ000-280145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western north into west-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107...

Valid 280042Z - 280145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107
continues.

SUMMARY...A pair of supercells producing large hail and damaging
winds will continue southeastward this evening. A small southward
extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107 may be needed if current
trends continue.

DISCUSSION...Multiple instances of large hail up to baseball size
have occurred along with a tornado with a supercell that has since
weakened in Stonewall County over the past hour or so. Another
supercell to the south entering Jones County as of 0040Z has
recently strengthened in an environment favorable for continued
storm organization and intensity (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and about
45 kt of effective bulk shear). A large hail and damaging wind
threat will likely persist for at least the next hour or two as this
convection moves southeastward into west-central TX. Recent MRMS
MESH estimates suggest some of this large hail may be greater than 2
inches in diameter with the supercell in Jones County. A small
southward extension to Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107 may be needed
if these storms continue on their current trajectory. The severe
threat appears to be diminishing across the western and northern
portions of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and counties may be
canceled early if current radar trends continue.

..Gleason.. 04/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32660046 33170023 33439998 33379793 32499802 32019817
            31769915 32010014 32660046 

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