ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271854 
SPC MCD 271854 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-272030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and the western Texas
panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271854Z - 272030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to occasionally severe storms are expected
through the afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Widespread high-based cumulus have developed across the
higher terrain of northern New Mexico in the last hour indicative of
the surface based instability which has developed. However, updrafts
have initially struggled likely due to significant dry air
entrainment. A zone of mid-level moisture can be seen advecting
toward this area which will help with deeper convective development
through the afternoon. The effects of this better moisture are
likely being captured with the storms which have developed in
southern Colorado. In addition to the increasing mid-level moisture,
increasing instability due to surface heating and weak upslope flow
in northeast New Mexico will also assist with storm development this
afternoon along and near the cold front/stationary front. Moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear around 45 to 50
knots will support the threat for isolated severe storms, but
limited instability will likely preclude a more widespread threat.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat given the
mid-level lapse rates and the inverted-v soundings across the area.

..Bentley.. 04/27/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36980414 36940323 36390256 35770157 35180125 34560150
            34210212 34130276 34280347 34980410 35660445 36680440
            36980414 

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