ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 181742 
SPC MCD 181742 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-181945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Areas affected...southeast la to west-central al

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 181742Z - 181945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across MS and southeast LA
over the next several hours. New Tornado watch will be issued by 19z
to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer air mass is gradually heating across MS
into western AL where surface temperatures are now in the upper 70s.
As a result, buoyancy has increased a bit downstream of ongoing
corridor of strong-severe convection. Latest radar data exhibits an
expanding MCS across ww82 that is expected to spread/develop toward
central MS over the next few hours. While pre-MCS convection has
struggled to exhibit long-lived supercell characteristics, this
remains a possibility. New tornado watch is warranted downstream to
address this upward-evolving convective threat.

..Darrow/Grams.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30279131 33618930 32848772 29388959 30279131 

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