ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 150630 
SPC MCD 150630 
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-150730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Virginia and extreme southeast Maryland

Concerning...Tornado Watch 73...

Valid 150630Z - 150730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 73 continues.

SUMMARY...An increased severe weather threat is expected for the
next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of supercells has developed in a low-level
confluence band across eastern Virginia. Storm-scale low-level
convergence has showed significant strengthening between 06Z and
0615Z from the AKQ WSR-88D. In addition, the AKQ VWP shows wind
speeds in excess of 70 knots at 1 km. While flow is mostly
unidirectional in the lowest 3 km, this extreme low-level speed
shear may be sufficient for low-level mesocyclone organization and
brief tornadic development. The maximum tornadic threat will likely
be during the next 1 to 2 hours before storms grow upscale and the
threat transitions more toward wind damage. 

In addition, an area of higher dewpoints and warmer surface
temperatures have advected into the southern Delmarva Peninsula
suggesting that these supercells will likely persist into this
region around 08Z.

..Bentley.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON   37727722 38277669 38297597 38037528 37227580 36917613
            36597641 36357717 36387754 36607798 37727722 

NNNN